The strength of the U.S. dollar against other currencies is not weighing down foreign interest in New York real estate. Instead, the opposite is occurring as international investors are increasingly seeing the brick-and-mortar assets in the Big Apple as a protected place to store capital.
Last year, the dollar gained modestly on the Chinese yuan and the British pound and logged low double-digit increases against the euro and Japanese yen. But foreign investment in New York City commercial real estate totaled $13.24 billion as of mid-December, up from $8.57 billion in 2013, according to Real Capital Analytics. In addition, record-breaking residential purchases by foreign buyers in the past year highlighted the desirability of New York homes for overseas investors.
Even as growth in China slows from its previously unsustainable pace, Chinese investors haven’t been swayed from investing in New York. Plus, most Chinese investors’ money is likely already in U.S. dollars, so currency exchange rates have had a neutral impact.
Like New York, Miami is also experiencing an unprecedented real estate boom fueled by a robust pool of wealthy out-of-town buyers and projects built by experienced, well-financed developers.
Developer Richard LeFrak told The Real Deal recently that he doesn’t see Miami’s current cycle slowing down soon. “I’d be worried if interest rates go up and consumer confidence drops,” LeFrak said. “But the U.S. economy is doing well and the stock market is high.” LeFrak cited the dramatic increase in the number of buyers from the northeastern U.S. over the past two years as evidence of a continually bullish Miami market.
Two key reasons why U.S. real estate – particularly NY and Miami – continue to attract overseas investors:
- USA is considered a safe haven. The strength of the dollar reflects a split in the world’s fortunes, with the steadily growing U.S. on one side and practically everyone else on the other. Stateside, the third-quarter GDP growth was the fastest rate in a decade at 5 percent, beating previous forecast of 3.9 percent. The jobs picture here also remains positive, with employers adding 312,000 jobs in November, while average hourly earnings increased by the largest amount since June 2013.
- USA real estate is cheap by comparison. The U.S. was the top spot for foreign real estate investment in 2014, outranking No. 2 Germany by 50 percentage points, according to the Association of Foreign Investors in Real Estate. New York City came in No. 2 in 2013 for foreign investment (after London). Case in point: A new Hong Kong luxury condo costs roughly twice as much as its Manhattan counterpart. On the commercial side, cap rates for Manhattan properties are at 4.7 percent, versus 3.1 percent in Hong Kong, according to Real Capital Analytics.
JAN
2015