Excluding mergers and portfolio deals, cross-border investment in the Big Apple has dropped off noticeably since the boom years, according to data from Real Capital Analytics.

Foreign buyers acquired just under $8 billion worth of commercial property in the five boroughs in 2017 and $9.5 billion last year, down from about $20.2 billion in 2015 and $15.8 billion in 2016.

“Ultimately, there’s really no way to get back to where investment was in 2015 and 2016 without a significant Chinese presence,” said Moody’s Analytics director Adam Kamins.

According to the National Association of Realtors, the number of foreigners who purchased homes across the U.S. plummeted by 31 percent between April 2018 and March 2019. In that period, foreign buyers purchased 183,100 properties valued at about $77.9 billion, down from 266,800 properties valued at $121 billion in the previous 12-month stretch.

In recent years, the strong dollar has caused currency hedging costs to surge for many European and Asian investors, leading them to seek out alternative destinations for their capital. That could even drive more American real estate investors to seek opportunities in other countries.

Currency considerations pushing investors away from New York have also led to a surge of interest in London real estate, despite (or perhaps because of) the looming threat of Brexit. That comes as the value of the pound has plummeted relative to the dollar and Euro.

On the other hand:

“A quarter of the world’s government bonds are at negative yields right now,” said Jones Lang LaSalle global capital group head Riaz Cassum. “So a lot of investors who may have bought Treasuries or German bunds are looking elsewhere for cash flow. And real estate — specifically U.S. real estate — is a really attractive option for them.”

But on the global stage, overall, New York’s position as a trophy investment magnet has remained strong, and recent political and economic uncertainty around the world could actually work in the Big Apple’s favor. (source: The Real Deal)